Paris Agreement 2100
14 décembre 2020
The goal of COP21 (2015) is to keep global temperature rise below 2oC by 2100 and to encourage efforts to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. As of 30 September 2016, 162 countries had submitted national contributions to the UN climate secretariat (UNFCCC, 2016). According to COP21, INDCs greenhouse gas emissions of 55 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2eq) in 2030 are insufficient to maintain the 2oC scenario. Emissions should therefore be reduced to 40 GtCO2eq. In addition, the 1.5oC scenario requires further reductions in emissions (COP21, 2016), as envisaged in the special report to be prepared in 2018 by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) (2016) reported a slightly higher emissions target for 2030, namely 42 GtGO2eq. One of the main outcomes of the 2015 Paris Agreement was that the United States and China were originally signed, although the United States has not caved in since. Together, the United States and China account for about 43% of global emissions: 28% to China and 15% to the United States. All signatories agreed to the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions due to rising temperatures and other risks that affect the world. Another important element of the agreement is that it includes countries that depend on oil and gas extraction revenues.
Unlike previous climate agreements, the Paris Agreement is entirely voluntary. This means that, although the agreement requires each country to submit an NDC plan, there is no indication as to how and how many countries should reduce emissions. Countries` plans can vary considerably in terms of their specific objectives, their ambition and even how they measure emissions reductions. One of the most important architectural concepts of Cancun`s 2oC target, which has been transferred to the long-term temperature target of Paris, is to « keep warming » below a certain level. The term « Hold below » is significantly stronger than a return to a certain degree of warming up to a certain time (up to 2100 (of a higher implied level). During the negotiations on this warming target, formulations such as the return to 2oC by 2100 were proposed and rejected.